Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the global burden of disease, and alcohol exposure data is critical for assessing the global incidence of noncommunicable diseases. May 7, 2019 《The Lancet》, published a research that estimated the main alcohol exposure indicators for 189 countries from 1990 to 2017 and predicted the results for 2030.
The 2030 forecast data uses a multi-log-normal mixed Poisson distribution model. Dirichlet regression was used to investigate lifetime alcohol bans and current drinking rates using survey data from 149 countries. Based on survey data from 118 countries, the rate of alcohol abuse was estimated using fractional response regression (at least one intake of 60 grams of pure alcohol in 30 days).
From 1990 to 2017, global adult per capita alcohol consumption increased from 5.9 liters to 6.5 liters, and is expected to reach 7.6 liters by 2030. Globally, the lifetime Alcohol withdrawal rate dropped from 46% in 1990 to 43% in 2017, but the current prevalence of drinking has increased from 45% in 1990 to 47% in 2017. It is expected that by 2030, the rate of abstinence will drop to 40%, and the proportion of current drinkers will increase to 50%. In 2017, 20% of adults were defined as alcoholism (estimated at 18.5% in 1990) and this ratio is expected to increase to 23% by 2030.
According to the research, the global drinking rate is increasing year by year, and it is urgent to reduce alcohol intake.